HSBC: The strength of the US dollar is over
HSBC held its 2023 economic outlook today (13), announcing "the end of the US dollar's strength". It is expected that the US Federal Reserve will end the interest rate hike cycle after raising interest rates by 0.5 percentage points on February 1 this year, and maintain 4.875% throughout the year. Touching the high point, the European and American economies will bottom out in the second half of the year and the US dollar will weaken.
HSBC believes that "China's stock market is more attractive than the U.S. stock market this year", and is optimistic about the retaliatory consumption and retaliatory tourism that will be brought about after the lifting of the blockade. HSBC also expects that China’s GDP in the first quarter of this year will still be negative and will fall into a -0.5% contraction. In the second quarter, it will come out of the haze and its GDP will rebound to 6.2%. Year, up to 5.8%. China is pouring money into Asia to accelerate economic growth. It is optimistic that Asia's GDP excluding Japan will grow to 4.3% in 2023, higher than the original forecast of 3.5% last year.
With the US interest rate peaking, HSBC expects the US to cut interest rates twice next year to stabilize economic growth, especially the latest CPI data released by the US confirms that inflation has peaked and fell back, there is room for interest rate cuts, the upward trend of the US dollar has ended, and the relationship between the US dollar and other currencies Interest rate spreads are no longer widening, eliminating the main favorable factors that promote the appreciation of the dollar.
Comments