On April 21, 2024, copper prices achieved their highest level in nearly two years last Friday (April 19), driven by an expansion in buying fervor among funds amid concerns over supply, while nickel prices increased on rumors of the Chinese government purchasing stocks.
As of 1610 Greenwich Mean Time, the three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 1.4% to $9,866 per ton, reaching a peak of $9,913.50 during the session—the highest level since April 2022.
April saw a significant influx of capital into the commodities market, with the price of metals used in electricity and construction increasing by 16% over the past two months.
A report from Citibank stated that their current base forecast for copper prices could reach as high as $10,500 per ton, with an average price of $10,000 for the second and third quarters.
According to our market department's analysis: From a risk perspective, we now believe the current uptrend will persist over the next three months.
LME nickel prices surged by 5% to $19,480 per ton at one point, later narrowing to $19,300 per ton, due to market concerns over tightening supply from Indonesia, the largest exporting country, and rumors of the Chinese government purchasing nickel stocks. LME aluminum prices rose by 1.7% to $2,660 per ton as the market adjusted to the U.S. and London's prohibition on the LME and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) from accepting new Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel into their warehouses.
Data from "LME Daily" indicates an increase in investors notifying their desire to remove metals from LME-registered warehouses, reducing available aluminum inventory by 43,075 tons to 171,200 tons—the lowest level since August 2022. LME tin prices soared by 4.5% to $35,505 per ton, a 22-month high, continuing this week's significant uptrend due to large positions held by a party, fund purchases, and concerns over supply.
Additionally, the high LME nickel prices have contributed to a significant depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the U.S. Dollar, driving up purchase prices for stainless steel mills and steel coil centers in Taiwan.
Furthermore, Tsingshan Indonesia has raised its prices by an additional $60 per ton. Due to the aforementioned factors, stainless steel mills in Taiwan may be compelled to increase their prices for May. The price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Taiwan has already risen by $30 per ton this week. Market demand is expected to improve, providing support for the new prices in May.
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